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With freight rates rising sharply, many procurement and logistics teams are hoping for relief in 2027.

Feel free to keep hoping, but the smarter approach is to accept that the cost baseline has reset higher, understand what’s driving the market, and align your 2027 freight budget and processes to reality.

Ryan Hammett, Market Intelligence Director at C.H. Robinson, recently shared this freight market forecast with Procure Analytics members. (C.H. Robinson is a program supplier to Procure Analytics’ GPO program.)

Here’s what every procurement team should know about managing freight costs now.

Key Takeaways for 2027 Freight Budget Planning

Procurement and logistics teams should not build 2027 freight budgets with expectations for broad rate relief. Current market signals point to a higher cost baseline, with truckload, LTL, and fuel pressure likely to affect budgets. Shippers should plan for higher rates while exploring alternative strategies to managing costs.

Will Freight Rates Go Down in 2027?

After multiple years of relative calm, the North American freight market has shifted into a new market cycle driven by supply-side dynamics. What does that mean for your 2027 budget?

Carrier operating costs are up — insurance, driver wages, equipment costs are all higher. Fuel prices are compounding that pressure. That means operators have to use increasingly expensive credit to float those rising expenses between when fuel is purchased and when the shipper pays the invoice.

Meanwhile, freight demand is steady, but not booming. That means fewer carriers, tighter networks, and less willingness to compete on price.

“If you’re having service challenges, that’s because your rates are behind and those carriers can find better, more profitable freight somewhere else,” Hammett said.

Where is Contract Pricing Headed in 2027?

Across transportation, there are two types of pricing: spot pricing and contract pricing.

Most freight, especially freight managed by procurement professionals, is in the contract pricing realm.

However, it’s still worth paying attention to the spot freight because it tells you where the contract market is going to go.

The truckload spot market is now running 35% higher for the full year than it was in 2025, with a lot of that increase still to come in the second half of the year. That will translate to a 10-12% increase in contract dry van rates on average.

But the impact on 2027 depends on timing of any cool-off after the peak summer freight season. If it does cool off significantly in July, from a contract perspective for next year, shippers may see high single-digit percent increases for truckload.

How Much Should Shippers Budget for LTL Increases?

LTL pricing has averaged 4.7% year-over-year increases over the past 33 years.

But 2027 is different.

Tonnage is shifting from truckload to LTL, which allows carriers to be selective and disciplined about pricing.

That means LTL pricing will likely be on the higher side of that 4.7% average. Shippers may want to budget LTL freight at a 5-8% increase in 2027, depending on freight characteristics and buying power.

How Long Will Fuel Prices Stay Up?

Diesel prices are elevated and likely to stay that way until U.S. oil inventories normalize. Shippers may want to budget for fuel as a best-case and worst-case scenario and watch closely over the next few months to see what direction it’s going to go.

How Can Shippers Manage Freight Costs Outside of Rates?

With rate pressure expected to continue, procurement teams can still use these tactics to manage costs: 

  • Procurement segmentation: Handle high-volume, dense corridors (dedicated or contract) differently from low-volume or hard-to-reach (spot market) locations.
  • Tender lead time: Consider giving carriers longer notice instead of same-day requests to create cost opportunities.
  • Process optimization: Evaluate whether the cost savings from live load vs. drop trailer or smoothing shipment frequency to reduce unpredictability for carriers may pay off for your operation.
  • Customer expectations: Consider working with your internal customers to adjust transit and lead time expectations and give you more flexibility to find capacity or utilize different modes of transportation.
  • Modal shifts: Evaluate if consolidating and holding freight in order to shift volume to LTL or intermodal may make sense.

You can’t control freight rates in 2027, but you can control strategy, process, and timing. The teams that adapt now will have more control over their freight costs next year.

C.H. Robinson publishes a truckload rate forecast each month in the C.H. Robinson Edge Report, which is a helpful guide for procurement professionals as they finalize 2027 budgets.

If you need help translating market conditions into a freight budget, Procure Analytics can identify savings opportunities across your network.

Procure Analytics helps members reduce freight and logistics costs by leveraging $2.5 billion in combined spend. Members see typical savings of 10-20%. Request a savings review to see where your organization may be able to reduce freight costs.