Procure Analytics’ Packaging Market Trends June 2025 Report offers crucial insights into the forces shaping this vital industry.

Here’s a brief snapshot of what’s shaping the market:

  • Manufacturing Headwinds and Inflation: The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to face challenges, remaining in contraction in May 2025 with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) reported at 48.5. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline, indicating a subdued economic environment for producers. While new orders saw a slight uptick, overall inventories decreased, reflecting cautious business sentiment. Inflation remains a persistent factor, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 0.1% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, largely driven by rising shelter and food costs. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a 0.1% monthly increase, reaching 2.8% year-over-year, influenced by higher trade service margins.
  • Shifting Supply Chains: The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) recorded an increase to +0.19 in May, signaling ongoing disruptions. Recent tariff updates are significantly impacting global trade flows. The U.S. doubled its tariff on steel and aluminum to 50% for most countries, excluding the UK. A revised agreement with China has set U.S. tariffs on most Chinese goods at 55%, while China applies a 10% tariff on U.S. imports. Domestically, transportation costs show mixed signals, with rail and truck prices rising by 0.1% in May, though air prices saw a 2.8% decline. Global container rates continue to hover around $3,400, reflecting sustained shipping costs.
    Corrugated Market Adjustments: The corrugated industry is grappling with steep declines in demand, with box shipments dropping 2.1% in Q1 2025, reaching their lowest point since 2014. This sustained weakness has prompted producers to announce mill closures, with Georgia-Pacific being the latest to idle its Cedar Springs facility. Export markets, particularly to China and Western Europe, also remain volatile due to trade uncertainties. Despite these challenges, corrugated pricing remained flat in May, though forecasts suggest potential decreases later in the year as lower demand and raw material costs exert pressure.
  • Polymer and Pallet Dynamics: Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) prices held steady in May after a dip in April, influenced by production levels hitting their lowest since June 2023. Subdued demand is expected to keep LLDPE prices flat, with potential for further decreases if market weakness persists. Meanwhile, the pallet market is experiencing strong demand for higher-grade recycled pallets, partly driven by increased warehouse automation needs and shifts in sourcing. Core availability is tightening in certain regions, exacerbated by the start of the agriculture season and retailer inventory practices. Recycled pallet prices are facing upward pressure and are forecasted to rise through the upcoming quarter, despite ongoing buyer resistance to hikes.

Staying proactive in this constantly shifting landscape is essential for PA members, and our Packaging team‘s comprehensive analysis is now available.

For the full June 2025 Packaging Market POV report, click here.